Ground Cover Supplement : GC Supplement - Climate forecasting
4 Climate tools by David Freebairn PlaNNeD uPDates to the australian cliMate app, to be released progressively between 2014 and 2016, include the addition of the Potential Yield calculator (PYcalc) and the Bureau of Meteorology’s advanced seasonal forecasting model – the Predictive ocean atmosphere Model for australia (PoaMa). these will improve the confidence of cliMate’s seasonal forecasts. there are also plans to include analyses of the status of drought events brought about by the el Niño–southern oscillation climate driver. users will be able to access information on the 10 most severe droughts and their duration for a particular location and compare these with the current dry season. the aim is to incorporate a ‘drought development alert’ to enable growers to better manage drought risk. first released in 2013, cliMate has been downloaded by 20,000 users across australia with more than 100,000 accessions of climate data. the app contains a suite of climate analysis tools that enable users to quickly interrogate the past 65 years of weather statistics, forecasts and climate probabilities for their specific location. New releases will allow users to explore weather back to 1900. cliMate accesses long-term data from the australia-wide climate database known as silo. the opening screen on the app allows the user to select any of the 4500 long-term and continuously updated climate sites across australia. cliMate enables users to determine where the current season sits historically by tracking current season rainfall, temperature or heat sums for any specified period. this takes some of the guesswork out of assessing seasonal conditions relative to other years and allows growers to adjust inputs and yield expectations. seasonal deCIsIons Growers and advisers can use the app during fallowing to determine whether enough soil moisture is available to support early sowing. cliMate also provides an estimate of the relative nitrogen mineralisation over the fallow. Nitrogen fertiliser requirements can be adjusted based on stored soil water and soil nitrate accumulation, although soil testing is recommended to support such assessments. Climate app updated with latest forecasting model users of the popular australian Climate app will soon have access to a series of updates to better track estimated yields in relation to the season’s progress Climate questions Australian CliMate provides easy access to real-time and historical weather statistics from 4500 weather station sites across Australia. The app sources climate data when in a mobile phone or wireless reception area and stores it until needed. Most analyses remain valid between data updates. The analyses are structured around the following questions. how often? What is the chance of a sowing event based on amount of rainfall over five days? How often is a heat sum achieved in a set period of time? What is the probability of temperature being below a critical level for germination or flowering? how hot/cold? For determining an ideal sowing date: when are heat and cold stresses lowest for the optimum flowering time? how’s the season? When adjusting inputs during a crop or australian Climate contains a suite of climate analysis tools that enable users to quickly interrogate the past 65 years of weather statistics, forecasts and climate probabilities for their specific location and make informed decisions about sowing time, fertiliser inputs and fungicide application. Climate suPPort help is available within the australian CliMate app. You can also contact the australian CliMate team. email: email@example.com online: www.australianclimate.net.au the app enables users to explore a range of ‘what if’ scenarios and ask questions about rainfall, temperature and radiation, as well as heat sums, soil water and soil nitrate status. Questions are asked within the framework of: “what is the chance of getting [more or less than] X [mm of rain, °c temperature, °c days heat sum] in Y days between (for example) May and July?” □ grDC research Code mCv00038 more information: David McClymont, 0467 599 149, firstname.lastname@example.org CliMate is available for free download for iPhone and iPad at the App Store. Search for ‘Australian CliMate’. A web version is available online (www.australianclimate.net.au).
GC Supplement - Grain and Graze
GC Supplement - Profitable pulses and pastures