Ground Cover Supplement : GC Supplement - Climate forecasting
11 Forecasting tools susan Carn’s Favourite weather websites bureau of meteorology www.bom.gov.au “There are lots of Australian weather sites and apps, but I prefer to go to the source for most of my information,” Susan Carn says. australian Climate influences www.bom.gov.au/climate/about “First things first – learn about what you’re up against,” Susan says. This is an interactive page on the climate systems that impact Australia. meteye® www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye This new map-based system factors in local conditions. It delivers detailed weather information and seven-day forecasts for your area. interactive weather and wave Forecast maps www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml Watch a graphic of the forecasted systems move across Australia for the next seven days. enso wrap-up www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso This page provides information on the current state of the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean including a quick El Niño watch tracker. Climate outlooks – monthly and seasonal www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/overview/summary With these interactive maps you can zoom in on your area. outlook video www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/overview/video This useful video explains the seasonal outlook. water and the land www.bom.gov.au/watl This page is a ’one-stop weather and climate shop’ for agriculture. madden–Julian oscillation www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo This page monitors this tropical influence on southern Australian rainfall. lightning tracker www.weatherzone.com.au/radar uk met office – monthly to Decadal Prediction www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to- decadal us national oceanic and atmospheric administration https://ready.arl.noaa.gov/reaDycmet.php The NOAA estimates rainfall for the coming week. ¢ Type in the coordinates of your location (for example, Quorn is –32.347 latitude and 138.04 longitude) and click ‘Continue’: ¡ click the arrow on the Meteorogram drop-down box, select ‘GFS Model (1.0 degree, 0–192h, 3hrly, Global, pressure)’ and click ‘Go’; ¡ on the next screen, click ‘Next >>’; ¡ scroll to the bottom of the next page and enter the access code as listed in the grey box (this code is not case sensitive); ¡ click ‘Get Meteorogram’; and ¡ the following page (first box) will give the total precipitation and when it is expected to fall. Information for each day of the week is listed in the last box. Japan agency for marine-earth science and technology www.jamstec.go.jp ¢ Search ‘Sintex-F1’ and select ‘Seasonal Prediction Experiments’: ¡ click the ‘Parameter’ dropdown menu and select ‘Precipitation Anomaly’; and ¡ a seasonal forecast map will display (to further refine your results, select your target season (a 3-month period) from the dropdown menu). aPeC Climate Center (south korea) www.apcc21.org ¢ Select ‘6-month Forecast’ from the ‘Service’ menu: on the ENSO page, click ‘Monthly Outlook'; ¡ for seasonal forecasts, scroll to the bottom of the page and under ‘Deterministic MME Forecast’, select a month, select ‘Australia’ and click ‘Open’; and ¡ a new window will open with your forecast. Susan says: “It even goes out to six months, which can be useful but I use with caution”. DPi victoria ‘Climate Dogs’ www.depi.vic.gov.au ¢ Search ’ClimateDog’ and select ‘DEPI – The Climatedogs: The four drivers that influence Victoria’s climate’. This is Susan’s favourite climate website: “It entertainingly explains five of the main climate drivers using short animated videos”. changing to late autumn their lambs were born before paddock feed diminished. the result was a lambing rate of more than 100 per cent and very big lambs at sale time – a very profitable decision. 2014 season two big rain events over the 2013 summer and another record-breaking event in april 2014 (associated with the Madden– Julian oscillation) meant ample subsoil moisture was available for sowing in the carns’ usually marginal cropping area. with all the talk about an impending el Niño, susan and Ben decided to crop conservatively. Despite the no-show of el Niño, the dry winter conditions that eventuated were very similar to an el Niño weather event. susan attributed the dry conditions and the week of frosts in early august to the sub tropical ridge (str) and the southern annular Mode (saM) blocking cold fronts. the str and saM systems are hard to forecast long range so susan relied instead on weekly forecasts specific to her area using Meteye® . she also used the cliMate app on her iPad to track how the year was progressing (see page 4 for more information on cliMate). luckily the carns’ crops had minimal frost damage and a handy 16 millimetres of rain in september finished the season nicely. Harvest commenced in mid-october with wheat averaging 1.8 tonnes per hectare (the average for Quorn is 1.5t/ha) and most at H1. a full list of climate champions involved with the McV program can be found on the climate kelpie website (www.climatekelpie.com.au). □ grDC research Codes eCo00012, mCv00033 more information: Susan Carn, 08 8648 6438, firstname.lastname@example.org using ForeCasts more eFFeCtively CSIRO’s Dr Peter McIntosh says there are four ways growers can use forecasts more effectively. ¢ Look at all the information and models you can get. ¢ Do not weigh all the information equally. Some models and forecasts are more skillful and reliable than others. You should account for this when comparing different forecasts. ¢ Look for consistency between the forecasts and models you have collected. If everything is telling you the same thing, then it is more likely to occur. If there is variation, there is increased uncertainty. ¢ Get used to the fact that no forecast is certain. The information tells you which way to lean, not which way to jump.
GC Supplement - Grain and Graze
GC Supplement - Profitable pulses and pastures