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Ground Cover Supplement : GC Supplement - Statistics for Australian Grains
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GROUNDCOVER 5 Issue 126 | Jan -- Feb 2017 | GRDC GROUNDCOVERTM SUPPLEMENT: SAGI TRAIT ANALYSIS PHOTO: AGT to be pulled together and analysed to increase rates of genetic improvement. "Plant breeding trials are influenced by numerous sources of noise and error, so the use of statistics is a key component of accurately identifying elite genetics," Dr Kuchel says. "New statistical methods allow us to test more individuals within our breeding programs, increasing the genetic improvement we can achieve. "We can also identify the stability of a variety's performance over time, over multiple sites and environments. "We can predict how a variety will perform in an environment it hasn't encountered yet, based on its performance at other sites. By bringing together all of the data into one analysis, we are more likely to identify drought- tolerant and high-yielding varieties, suitable for dry, hot regions." Dr Kuchel says growers can benefit from knowing the range of yield performance that a variety is likely to display, rather than just its average performance. "Average performance is useful for determining likely productivity, but variation in performance needs to be assessed to understand the risk associated with each variety." Dr Kuchel endorses NVT as a key part of the GRDC investment in the grains industry, with its focus on gathering variety performance data from multiple sites and years. "It's an independent source of data for growers to select their varieties from," he says. "Using good statistical approaches means growers get the best information possible -- it can be the difference between choosing an optimal or suboptimal variety." Dr Kuchel compares the evolution of MaceA and ScepterA. He says that although a lot has changed and technology has improved, in both cases advanced statistical analysis enabled quick feedback on the likely success of the varieties. "Even though we didn't have much independent data when we released MaceA, we generated a lot of data internally and our statistical approach gave us confidence that MaceA would continue to perform on-farm once it was released. It's nice to see those statistical predictions proven now that MaceA has been grown for a number of years," he says. FAST TRACKING "When we developed ScepterA and released it to growers, it was in a similar position to MaceA -- lots of potential, but independent testing still to be completed. With the aid of even better multi-environment statistical methods, we identified early in the breeding program that this line was a high-yielding variety with excellent yield stability. "It's that sort of data and scientific rigour that gives you the confidence to fast-track seed production. You want growers to be able to benefit from a variety like that as quickly as they can." Dr Kuchel says this sort of variety fast-tracking can be a boon for the grains industry. In the case of ScepterA, it has been five to six per cent higher-yielding than MaceA (Figure 1). If growers of MaceA swapped over to ScepterA a year earlier, that alone could mean an extra (From left) James Edwards, Haydn Kuchel and Daniel Vater of AGT. 350,000 tonnes of grain being produced by Australian farmers. "Australian plant breeders have access to some of the best biometrics skills in the world. The team at SAGI have helped to drive AGT's breeding programs forward, encouraging us to adopt cutting-edge approaches to design and analysis that means growers will have access to high rates of genetic gain," he says. "The methods developed by SAGI have helped to increase breeding program accuracy while also increasing population size -- all of this leads to more genetic improvement for farmers." o GRDC Research Codes UW00005, CAS00002 More information: Dr David Tabah, InterGrain, 0427 085 676, dtabah@intergrain.com; Dr Haydn Kuchel, AGT, 0428 817 402, haydn.kuchel@agtbreeding.com.au SOURCE: AGT FIGURE 1 Grain yield stability of key varieties across six environment types. CorackA MaceA MagentaA LongReach ScoutA WyalkatchemA Plant breeders use advanced statistics to explore the yield stability of new varieties across a range of environment types. ScepterA Grain yield (% environment type mean) Environment type (as determined from correlation of varieties) 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 2 1 5 6 4 3
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